Tag Archives: infection

Covid-19 and Compliance – the Rural Urban Divide

Other things being equal, one would expect infection rates for airborne transmissible diseases such as COVID-19 to be directly proportional to population density. At the beginning of the pandemic here in the United States infection rates were highest in the large cities on the coasts. These are places with high population density as would be expected.

As time went on, we learned that masks and distancing can have a profound impact on decreasing infection rates. The locale of rapidly increasing infection rates has now shifted to the Midwest in states such as North and South Dakota.

Here are some interesting comparisons. Los Angeles County, population density of 2,100 per square mile, has a case rate of about 40 per 100,000. (average number of daily new cases over the last seven days.)

Guttenberg, New Jersey has the highest population density of any city in the United States. It is in Hudson County, across the Hudson River from Manhattan. The population density of Hudson County is 14,000 people per square mile and an infection rate of 50 per 100,000.

Now compare those rates in very densely populated areas where rates would be expected to be high with the rates in much less densely populated counties. Pope County, Arkansas has a population density of 74 per square mile and an infection rate of 55 per 100,000.

Buffalo County, South Dakota, population density of only 4 people per square mile, has an infection rate of 204 per 100,000. The population density of Hudson county is 3,500 times greater than Buffalo county, yet its infection rate is one quarter that of Buffalo County.

It should be glaringly obvious that something else is driving the infection rates beyond population density. That something is the willingness to address the steps necessary to disrupt the transmission of COVID-19. Some areas still have not mandated any wearing of masks, most notably South Dakota. It is no wonder that it has the highest ratio of case rates to population density in the United States.

Mandates to prevent the spread of COVID-19 come in multiple flavors, from lockdowns to unenforced mask mandates. Regardless of laws, the issue is compliance and rural areas seem to be the least compliant. It’s about freedom, right? But that freedom to ignore the pleadings of governors across the country really means the freedom to spread disease and death to loved ones and strangers alike.

Some claim a medical exemption to mask-wearing but there is zero evidence that a mask interferes with the passage of gasses such as Oxygen and Carbon Dioxide. Some with asthma claim an exemption even though most doctors will tell asthmatics that they are at a greater risk without a mask because of their condition. There have even been mask-burning events to protest this simple public health measure.

One wag put the problem this way: There are two issues, one is population density and the other is the density of the population. Listen to the experts, wash your hands frequently, properly wear a mask, and keep a distance. Not one or another, all of them.

Dr. Bob Allen is Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, Arkansas Tech University.

Dealing with an Epidemic

Unless you live under a rock, you are at least aware that we have a viral infection rearing its head in the United States. Whether you call it an epidemic or a pandemic is immaterial. It began most likely in a market in Wuhan, China where any number of wild animal meats were on sale. Bats have been suggested but it isn’t yet clear.

The infection due to this virus is called COVID-19, as it is a member of a group of viruses known as corona viruses and it appeared in 2019. The virus itself has been given the name SARS-CoV-2 – short for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome second corona virus.

The first response by the government has been to close our borders to countries where an infection is already established. This response was too little too late. It appears the virus has been circulating in the United States for weeks now. There are reported cases in 15 states and 6 known fatalities. As a respiratory virus, its symptoms are similar to the annual flu but more lethal. It also seems to be more transmissible.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, the Federal Reserve has taken a step to stimulate business by lowering the rate it charges to loan money. The idea is to stimulate economic activity and get folks out to spend money. Weird huh? On the one hand, we are told to stay home to avoid the possibility of person to person transmission and at the same time get out in the public and spend to get the stock market value back up.

The Whitehouse proposed a couple of billion dollars to fight the epidemic and the Democrats have proposed much more. Even if approved it is not clear how this money will be allocated. Obviously a vaccine must be at or near the top of the list. Testing equipment and medical supplies from face masks to respirators are needed. Most important is to disrupt person to person contact. Officials have recommended the usual hand washing and if you exhibit symptoms, stay home – don’t go to work or school.

But here our for-profit healthcare system begins to fail us. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, a former drug company executive and pharmaceutical lobbyist, said that although he would want to make it affordable, he won’t promise that it will be. You hear all the time that related vaccines are “free” but the fine print says “with most insurance.” When the working poor get sick, they don’t stay home. If their children get sick, they go to school. There are a lot of folks whose jobs have no sick leave option – you don’t go to work you don’t get paid.

We need a healthcare system that recognizes it only works if it works for all. Free vaccinations. Full stop, payments to those who shouldn’t be going to work and payments for care of their sick children. And importantly a system that guarantees that they will still have a job if they stay home for an illness.

Dr. Bob Allen, Ph.D., is Emeritus Professor of Chemistry at Arkansas Tech University.