Tag Archives: vaccination

A Vaccine? Not so fast

Currently, Covid-19 has killed slightly over a million people worldwide, close to a quarter of that here in the United States. This is about equal to the annual death rate from Tuberculosis which is the most lethal infectious disease worldwide. Interestingly both are airborne respiratory diseases. The recent announcement of a ninety percent effective vaccine has buoyed hope world wide. The vaccine is being developed by a collaboration between Pfizer, an American drug manufacturer and BioNtech, a German Biotech company.

Whereas the initial data is encouraging, it is only initial data. What is yet to be determined is will the vaccine be durable, that is will its effectiveness to prevent the disease last more than a few months? Will it be effective in groups not tested? Pfizer has done a good job of including a mix of ethnic, racial, and age groups in the Phase III trial but will it work with neonates, or pregnant women, or as yet unknown variables?

Its distribution is also problematic as it requires that the vaccine be maintained at nearly minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit. That requires special equipment, way beyond a home or commercial freezer, which isn’t commonly available.

A real unknown is its adoptability. If and when an effective vaccine is available, will the public actually get the shot, actually two separated by two weeks? In terms of global human health, vaccinations are second only to good sanitation in improving the life and health of humanity. That said, we are living in a time of distrust in authority in general and in this case distrust in vaccinations.

Although anti-VAX (opposing vaccination) movements have waxed and waned since the time of Edward Jenner and the inception of vaccinations, the current movement began after outright fraud by Andrew Wakefield. He published a since retracted paper claiming that the Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine caused autism. It turns out that he was paid by an attorney to fabricate data that would be to his advantage in suits by parents with autistic children against drug manufacturers.

Several entertainment personalities promoting the anti-VAX position have apparently had an inordinate influence on the public. Actress/model Jennifer Biel testified against a California bill meant to limit medical exemptions for vaccination of school children. Jim Carrey and his one-time girlfriend Jenny McCarthy, Robert Kennedy Jr, Mayim Bialik of “Big Bang Theory” fame, and others with no relevant medical experience drive the anti-Vax train.

Our current environment of anti-intellectualism and anti-authoritarianism acts to combine with the anti-Vax movement to provide a big impediment to defeating Covid-19. The announcement of preliminary positive results with a vaccine is encouraging but we have a long physical and psychological way to go before life can return to normal. At the earliest, this is estimated to be the third quarter of 2021 or later. Until then we will need to continue to – you guessed it – wash your hands, wear a mask, and maintain a proper social distance.

Dr. Bob Allen is Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, Arkansas Tech University.

Get the Shot!

Being a geek, I’m a big fan of the TV sitcom, “The Big Bang Theory”. It is well written and does a good job of reflecting real science. Several of the characters are scientists. Amy Farah Fowler is Sheldon’s sort of girlfriend. The character is portrayed by actress Mayim Bailik, a neuroscientist who holds a PhD from UCLA .

Here’s the problem; Amy the character, appears to be more scientifically literate than Mayim the real life scientist. Mayim is the spokesperson for a group with views that go far beyond main stream medicine, such as recommending homeopathic treatments and not following scientifically accepted vaccination schedules for infants. The former would substitute ineffective sham medicine (homeopathy) with scientifically proven, efficacious drugs. In the case of the latter, rejecting vaccinations or even delaying an appropriate vaccination schedule puts not only the person or their children at risk of unnecessary illness, but also society at large.

The effectiveness of vaccinations depends on so-called herd immunity. To stop communicable disease does not require absolutely everybody be vaccinated, just a high enough percentage to disrupt transmission. Some individuals can’t be vaccinated for certain diseases for example neonates and pertussis- whooping cough.

Fall and rise of Whooping cough

Fall and rise of Whooping cough

They are protected from this once common disease by virtue of the fact that those around them have been vaccinated and therefore don’t carry the disease. If an older unvaccinated child gets pertussis s/he can transmit the bacterium to an infant with fatal results.

A real problem with getting a vaccination is a misperception of risk. A person may known of someone who got a flu shot, and had a bad reaction or had the shot and still got the flu. This knowledge introduces a bias. It doesn’t however change the fact the the overwhelming odds are in favor of getting the shot. Depending on the vaccine, the strain of influenza, and several host factors,

“ …How well a flu vaccine works is challenging, in general, recent studies have supported the conclusion that flu vaccination benefits public health, especially when the flu vaccine is well matched to circulating flu viruses” – Centers for Disease Control statement. The odds of a severe negative outcome, usually to an allergic reaction to the vaccine are in the one to millions range.

Back to the bias of knowing someone for which a flu shot didn’t work, or had a reaction. Does knowing someone who won the lottery make you more likely to win the lottery? Most folks would say of course not. But this is the same kind of bias. You think of just one outcome among many, many. But that doesn’t change your odds.

We all know someone who doesn’t wear a seat belt. S/he frequently justifies the self-endangerment by claiming that they know of a case where someone died due to the seat belt. The same bias. Evidence from literally billions of passenger miles shows seat belts save lives.

Vaccinations are generally safe and are generally efficacious. Vaccinations protect not only those vaccinated but also others through the herd immunity. Participate in society, get the shot.